Fri Apr 10, 2009 at 08:08:02 AM PDT
Good news and bad news all around. First the poll, which is good news for the campaign of state Delegate Brian Moran:
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 4/6-8. Registered voters. MoE 4%. (No trend lines)
Brian Moran (D) 24
Terry McAuliffe (D) 19
Creigh Deeds (D) 16
That's the best performance Moran has seen in any public poll - the best any of the candidates has done in a public poll.
There isn't a lot of daylight between the candidates, either in raw numbers or favorability, and nearly 40% of Democratic primary voters are undecided. So this is still anyone's game.
The favorability numbers show Moran with slight positive favorability - 36/33. McAuliffe's numbers are inferior, but not by a whole lot, at 35/36. Meanwhile, Creigh Deeds enjoys the best numbers (ever so slightly) at 34/30.
Among Democrats, all the boys in blue are in pretty good shape, meaning they're all pretty viable in the primary. Again, Deeds' are the best by a slim margin, at 55/12. Moran is next, at 56/15, while McAuliffe again trails by a slight margin at 55/17.
Moran has the best head-to-head numbers at this point against GOP candidate Bob McDonnell, although he is trailing:
Bob McDonnell (R) 37
Brian Moran (D) 36
Bob McDonnell (R) 40
Terry McAuliffe (D) 33
Bob McDonnell (R) 38
Creigh Deeds (D) 31
McDonnell's favorables are the best of all candidates in this poll, at 48/31. He's going to be very, very difficult to defeat.
While the polling numbers are very close, this poll should be considered good news for Brian Moran. He has plenty of institutional support (with the most endorsements of any candidate), and his base in Northern Virginia is critical in a Democratic primary where the lion's share of the vote comes from NoVA.
So what's the good news for Deeds and McAuliffe, and their supporters?
The area of concern for the Moran campaign is in the number of undecideds - 40%. Because while Moran leads at the moment, the fundraising numbers for the first quarter indicate that both of the other Democrats will have greater resources to pursue undecideds...even Deeds, who was unable to fundraise for half of Q1 as he was serving in the Virginia Senate.
Terry McAuliffe: $4.2 million raised, $2.5 million cash on hand
Creigh Deeds: $600,000 raised, $1.2 million cash on hand
Brian Moran: $800,000 raised, $825,000 cash on hand
Moran left the House of Delegates early, in part, so that he could get a head start raising money this quarter. Nevertheless, Deeds (who had only 44 days to raise money) maintains a cash-on-hand advantage, and his raw numbers aren't half bad for half a quarter's work.
So Deeds fans can take comfort in the fundraising numbers, and the knowledge that he can devote himself full-time to campaigning this spring.
McAuliffe's numbers are also worrisome for Moran; he was expected to raise plenty of money, but he raised $760,000 from within Virginia, outraising Moran (and Deeds) in-state.
Moran's spending money almost as fast as it comes in, too. He finished last quarter with $769,000 on hand; he now has $825,000. That's not a great burn rate. McAuliffe spent a good bit of money himself in the first quarter - $1.7 million - but he can probably afford to spend twice that over the next two months if he wants to.
So McAuliffe fans should also feel pretty optimistic.
With so many undecided voters, this primary may well come down to who has the most resources with them in the closing two months. Moran's leading now, but there's a long time between now and June 9. It's still anyone's game.